On this 278th episode of Monday Morning Pep Talk, I’m pulling back the curtain on what it really takes to forecast, track, and improve your production. We’re not talking theory - we’re breaking down the strategies that top advisors and the most successful entrepreneurs actually use to build profitable, sustainable businesses. If you’re tired of guessing, hoping, or coming up short, this is the episode for you. I’ll walk you through how to know your numbers cold, how to fill your pipeline like the pros, and how to create a system that drives predictable results - month in and month out. No fluff, no excuses - just the actionable framework you need to level up your business and finally get ahead.
Before I jump into today’s call, I want to remind you of my professional purpose: to help you, the full-service, full-fee Advisor, optimize your productivity and become the best version of yourself. Why? Because “Happy Advisors Sell More Real Estate.” I do that by teaching you how to handle the challenges and opportunities you face every day. When you can effectively manage the situations that arise daily in your business, you’ll be more productive and live a life that reflects the best version of yourself. My ask is that you listen as if you’re in a one-on-one coaching session with me, either in my office or on a call.
Before we dive in, here’s how to get the most out of today’s MMPT: I’ve broken this episode into sections, with each paragraph outlining a specific strategy. You can treat each section as its own playbook - focus on one at a time, or work through them all in sequence. Either way, you’ll have clear, actionable steps you can put into practice immediately. This isn’t just a list of ideas; it’s a toolkit you can use to sharpen your approach, boost your production, and take control of your business results - starting now.
12 Month Rolling Production
12-month rolling production is just a way of tracking your business results over the most recent 12 months, not just by calendar year. Instead of measuring your production from January to December, you’re always looking back at your past 12 months - no matter what month it is.
For example: It's early May, so you would add up everything you’ve closed from last May 1st of last year through April 30th of this year. Next month, you drop off the 13th month which would be May of 2024. The total always reflects your most recent year (12 months) of production.
Why it matters:
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It gives you a real-time snapshot of your true pace and consistency.
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You see trends as they’re happening, not just at year-end.
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You can catch a slowdown (or a surge) early and adjust your strategy before it’s too late.
Bottom line: It’s a moving window that shows what your business is really doing right now, not what it did last year. If you want to be honest with yourself about your current trajectory, track your 12-month rolling production. It doesn’t let you hide from a slump - or coast on last year’s wins.
What is the Proper Size of a Pipeline
If you want to actually hit your annual production goal, you can’t just fill your pipeline with deals that add up to your target. You need at least 1.5 times your goal in your active pipeline at all times (use the 12-month rolling strategy discussed above).
Why? Because not every deal will close. Some fall apart. Some drag into next year. Some just disappear. Real estate is full of surprises, and your pipeline needs to account for that reality. Bonus: It eases the pain when a predicted client doesn't move forward.
Example: If your goal is $10 million in closed volume, you need about $15 million in solid, active deals (Pending, Hot List, Warm List) at any given time. That extra buffer covers the inevitable fallouts and slowdowns.
Why it matters: If you only focus on filling your pipeline to your goal, you’ll come up short when the fallout hits. Top producers always over-fill the pipeline funnel so the law of averages works in their favor. 1.5x is the bare minimum if you want to sleep at night.
Create Urgency
The advisors who consistently hit their goals - and keep growing - are the ones who are always engaging future clients and filling their pipeline. They treat prospecting as non-negotiable. For me, I created real urgency around it by visualizing my opportunity in no uncertain terms: a pallet of cash representing the business I could win versus the money I’d lose by not prospecting.
Here’s how I made it real: At the start of the year, I’d imagine that pallet of cash on the floor by my desk - equal to the commissions I wanted to earn. I’d tell myself: “At the end of the year, I’ll either deposit that cash in my bank account, or I’ll light it on fire." It’s that simple. Every call I avoided, every lead I neglected, was me tossing money into the fire. Making the options that vivid forced me to choose: do I want to cash in, or burn the opportunity?
Why it matters: When you make the stakes this clear, prospecting stops being a chore and starts being a direct line to your goals - or your regrets.
Gamify Your Prospecting Efforts
James Clear shares a great story in Atomic Habits that proves just how powerful consistency can be when you gamify your daily actions. Trent Dyrsmid, a young stockbroker fresh out of college, started every morning with two jars on his desk - one filled with 120 paper clips. Each time he made a sales call, he’d move a paper clip to the empty jar. He refused to go home until every paper clip had been transferred. Day in, day out, he tracked his progress in a way he could see and feel. Within two years, he was at the top of his firm, bringing in millions in new business. The lesson: If you want real results, gamify your prospecting and follow-up. Make your efforts visual, measurable, and a little competitive, and you’ll find it’s a lot easier to stay disciplined and build serious momentum.
Why it matters: Because most advisors think they’re doing enough, but when you actually track your activity - like moving those paper clips - you see the truth. Consistent, measurable action is the difference between average and elite. The market is unpredictable, deals fall apart, and the only thing you can control is your effort. By gamifying your prospecting, you hold yourself accountable and eliminate the guesswork. You create daily wins, build real momentum, and set yourself up for predictable results instead of crossing your fingers and hoping business will magically appear. If you want to control your outcome, you have to control your process. Create a game that works for you and stick to it.
Build a Massive Warm List
There’s real power in your warm list - those leads who are six months to a year out from making a move. Most advisors get obsessed with the hot list: the people ready to buy or sell right now. But if you only focus on the hot list, you’re setting yourself up for dry spells. The truth is, your warm list is where future business lives. These are relationships you need to stay in front of, keep the conversation going, and provide real value before they’re ready to act. If you consistently engage your warm list, you’ll never wake up to an empty pipeline. The advisors who win year after year are the ones who treat their warm list like gold, not an afterthought. That’s how you keep business rolling - no surprises, no panic, just steady, predictable results. As a rule, you should always be thinking 6 months out, not 6 weeks out.
Why it matters: That’s how you keep business rolling - no surprises, no panic, just steady, predictable results. As a bonus, those who transact having started in your warm list become your most loyal clients. Why? Because you added value to their lives before they were ready. Not to mention, their sphere is full of people that need your services today.
Know Your Numbers
To set real, achievable goals, you have to know your numbers cold. Start with your annual income target, then work backward using your average sales price, typical commission percentage, and your split with the brokerage. This tells you exactly how much volume you need to close. From there, break it down further: how many transactions does that require, given your averages? Now, factor in fallout - deals that will inevitably fall through - and adjust your pipeline targets upward. This is where most advisors go wrong: they guess, or hope, or use round numbers without actually doing the math. If you want predictable success, you have to forecast like a business owner, not just a salesperson. For those of you who have attended Take Flight, I provided you a calculator that helps you forecast. It's the last tab in your Business Planning Guide.
Why it matters: If you don’t know your numbers, you’re flying blind. You’ll either fall short or leave money on the table. When you forecast properly, you set clear targets for how many leads you need, how much prospecting you must do, and exactly what your pipeline should look like at any given time. It turns chaos into clarity - and gives you the confidence that every effort is moving you closer to your goal.
Let’s get real - there’s no room for excuses in this business. If you want consistent results, you need to start acting like a true business owner, not just an order taker. Everything we talked about today - knowing your numbers, tracking your rolling 12-month production, forecasting based on real data, and filling your pipeline 1.5x over your goal - isn’t just theory, it’s the blueprint top advisors follow to stay ahead. The ones who win year after year are relentless about prospecting. They gamify the process, hold themselves accountable, and don’t let a single day slip by without moving the needle. They don’t wait for the phone to ring, they make the calls, have the conversations, and keep their pipeline full - so when the market shifts or deals fall apart, they aren’t caught scrambling.
If you’re not treating your warm list like gold, you’re already behind. If you don’t have a clear forecast built from your average sales price, commissions, and splits - down to the exact number of closings you need - you’re just guessing and hoping for the best.
Hope is not a strategy. The market will always reward the advisors who are prepared, disciplined, and proactive.
So here’s your move: audit your business right now. Get brutally honest about your numbers. Visualize what’s at stake - how much you stand to win or lose based on the action you take each day. Set up a system to gamify your prospecting and make your progress visible. Build the pipeline you need to hit your real goals - not just what feels comfortable. No more waiting, no more excuses. The opportunity is there for those willing to do the work. It’s your job to seize it. Start now, and don’t let up.
